Perbandingan Performansi Algoritma Multiple Linear Regression dan Multi Layer Perceptron Neural Network dalam Memprediksi Penjualan Obat: Comparison of the Performance of Multiple Linear Regression Algorithms and Multi Layer Perceptron Neural Networks in Predicting Drug Sales

Danang Arifuddin; Kusrini Kusrini; Kusnawi Kusnawi

doi:10.57152/malcom.v5i2.1952

Authors

Danang Arifuddin Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta
Kusrini Kusrini Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta
Kusnawi Kusnawi Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.57152/malcom.v5i2.1952

Keywords:

Farmasi, Machine Learning, Multiple Linear Regression, Sales Prediction

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengevaluasi pemilihan atribut dari variabel internal (jumlah penjualan) dan eksternal (cuaca, harga komoditas, inflasi) menggunakan metode korelasi, serta membandingkan performansi algoritma Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) dan Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network dengan backpropagation (MLPNN-b) dalam memprediksi penjualan obat analgesik di “Apotek XYZ”. Metrik evaluasi Mean Squared Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) digunakan untuk mengukur akurasi prediksi. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa atribut internal "h-7" memiliki korelasi tertinggi (0,35) terhadap penjualan harian, sementara variabel eksternal seperti suhu harian, harga bawang merah, dan suku bunga juga memberikan kontribusi. Algoritma MLPNN-b dengan parameter tertentu mencapai MAPE 22,3% dan MSE 19.588 pada atribut tunggal, sedangkan MLR memiliki kinerja lebih merata pada atribut kombinasi dengan MAPE 25,6% dan MSE 22.768. Namun, kedua model masih mengalami underfitting dengan tingkat kesalahan prediksi yang cukup tinggi. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa meskipun MLPNN lebih unggul dalam menangkap hubungan non-linear dibandingkan MLR, akurasi prediksi masih belum optimal. Oleh karena itu, eksplorasi model hybrid serta integrasi lebih banyak variabel eksternal direkomendasikan untuk meningkatkan prediksi penjualan dan mendukung sistem manajemen stok farmasi yang lebih akurat.

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